ISLAMABAD: A large majority of voters seemed to be aware of the symbols of PTI candidates in most of the surveyed constituencies.
According to a press release issued on Wednesday, despite massive crackdown, lack of level playing field and absence of common election symbol, Pakistan Tehreek-Insaf (PTI) seemed to have kept its popularity intact and is likely to be main rival to major political parties in three of four provinces of Pakistan.
In more than 54% constituencies where survey was conducted PTI was found more popular than other parties combined, while in other constituencies it was likely to be more popular than its nearest rivel, while PML-N was mentioned by 26% and only 8% named PPP.
In Punjab the main rival of PTI were likely to be Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), while in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) depending on the region PTI’s immediate rivals are likely to be JUI-F, ANP, PPP and JI. In rural Sindh, PPP seemed to have no rival, except in few constituencies where Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) could give tough time to PPP. However, Karachi would likely to experience three-to-four-way contest in most of the constituencies.
As far as intent to vote is concerned, an unprecedented number of voters (more than 85%) claimed that they would cast their vote on 8th February.
These are some of the salient findings of PATTAN-Coalition38 opinion poll cum survey conducted between 3-5 February with randomly selected registered voters across 131 National and 190 Provincial Assembly constituencies of three provinces of the country.
Regarding popularity of parties and candidates, PTI’s candidates were likely to be the most favorite in most of the surveyed constituencies of Punjab and KP.
As far as availability of level-playing-field to all parties is concerned 39% respondents said level playing field was not available to all parties and candidates in their respective neighbourhood, while 61% said it was available.
Vote-buying is a crime under Section 167-168 of Chapter 10 of the Elections Act 2017. Our survey found 15% respondents saying that in their areas vote-buying was taking place. In the last survey, conducted in the first half of January, it was 13%. This means vote-buying has risen since then. And this level of vote buying can materially impact outcome of the next poll as Pakistan’s electoral system is majoritarian which allows victory by just one vote. Interestingly, in most countries where vote-buying takes place its ratio is likely to be close to our survey result.
PATTAN-Coalition 38 had also conducted an opinion poll in the first half of January 2024. Most of the findings of both surveys appear to be similar. It is also worth stating here that findings of our survey corroborate trends of other opinion polls too.
